Nintendo 3DS sales prediction

The Nintendo 3DS will see a strong increase in sales in the upcoming quarters.


Link to 3DS sales predicition market

New prediction markets open on Monday

New Market: Dow Jones Forecast December 2011
Will we see the return of the financial crisis?
New Market : forecast 3DS sales 2012
Can Nintendo repeat its success with the 3DS or will it continue to fall short of the high expectations?

...our new prediction markets will find out.

New prediction marktes started on Markttrend

New Market: NIKKEI August 2011 How fast will Japan recover from the crisis? A new market will find out. New Market : DAX September 2011 How will the Dax perform in the upcoming months? Will the rising oil price an the Euro-crisis take its toll?

Poll Results: Nuclear Power Germany

Will the German government stick to its plan to extend the lifespan of some nuclear power plants?

Link to Poll

Back with oil

New market: oil price forecast July 2011

The oil price surges well above the 100$ mark. The spread between lower WTI and higher Brent prices indicated a weaker Brent outlook. But as the instability in the middle east and north Africa unfolds, the price is ready to rally.

New feature: open markets

Some markets feature stocks that cover the whole range above or below a certain point. In the Dow Jones market for instance there is a >12.400 stock. If an extreme point is met or exceeded it is hard to make an exact prognosis. This is why we have developed open markets which can be expanded without negative impact on the prices of the other stocks in the market. The new oil price market will be the first of this kind.

politics poll: German Green party 2011

Will 2011 see the election of the first Green Party prime minister in one of the German federal states?

link to poll

New Markttrend Poll Results

Should the German cities and town districts be allowed to determine their share of the income tax themselves?


yes: 27%
no:  73%

Link to poll

What's new on Markttrend.com

Minimize your losses, restructure your portfolio with the new joker or invest in the new iPad 2011 prediction market.

New Market: iPad 2011 sales forecast

The iPad has been a success so far, but current predictions for 2011 ranging from 20 to over 50 Million units reflect the high uncertainty of exactly how fast this market will grow over the next year. Instead of throwing in another wild guess we will simply find out with our new prediction market.

Closed Market: company open source

Due to very low trading volumes we closed the open source market on Friday, 12^th November.

Bonus: Big Joker

Every user will receive an additional big joker this week to minimize losses in his current investments. To use it simply select the joker when selling a stock with loss.

Markttrend prediction market Poll: How will the situation at the US job market evolve over the next 6 months?

Poll Results: situation on US job market will.....

improve : 50%
stay the same: 44%
worsen: 6%

View poll

What's new on Markttend mrediction markets this week

This week is all about the US economy.

New Market: Dow Jones May 2011 forecast

When we last closed our Dow Jones prediction market the Dow was down at 10.000 points. Our long term trend indicated a recovery in the following weeks, but the strong surge of over 1000 points was much higher than predicted. Despite the recovery of the markets, the high unemployment rate remains steady. Even the expected new round of quantitative easing (QE2) may not change the pace of recovery and the mid-term elections raise the fear of a political deadlock in the US. So let’s see what the future holds for the Dow.

Closed Market: party votes Germany

We will close some markets where users haven’t been active for a while to make way for new forecasts. The first in line is the “party votes Germany” market which hasn’t seen a lot of trades during the past three month. The market will close on Friday the 5^th.

Markttrend weekly Poll - German Federal President Christian Wulff

How would you rate the current German Federal President Christian Wulff on a scale from 1 (very good) to 5 (terrible)?

2 - 25%

3 - 58%

4 - 17%

Link to poll

What's new on Markttrend Prediction Markets

We start a new prediction market on the thriving smartphone market this week and we have fixed a major bug that caused a lot of problems for new users.

New Market: Smartphone sales Q1 2011

Big technology companies are struggling to increase their stake in the fast growing Smartphone market which is still dominated by the Symbian operating system. Apple has certainly scored a success with its iPhone but Google is catching up with its Android platform and Microsoft is relaunching its mobile efforts with its brand new Windows phone 7. So let’s see what this all comes down to in the next few months.

Fixed Bug: user initialization

Due to changes of the log-in process new users where not properly initialized and could therefore not trade in markets. Additionally this failed process caused display problems in some browsers while viewing a prediction market after the first log-in.

Markttrend Poll: Currency Crisis

Link to poll

calm down:                  46%
maintain status quo:     31%
exacerbate:                   23%

What's new on Markttrend Prediction Markets

Our poll puts a light on the so called “currency war” and a new market will measure if Apple’s stocks will live up to the hype.

New Market: Apple share price forecast 2011

Apple has come a long way from an almost dead niche player to one of the biggest Tech companies in the world and a role model for the consumer electronic industry. Only five years ago Apple stocks surpassed the 50$/share mark. Now one share trades for well over $300. But can Apple live up to the hype and further increase its market cap? We are eager to find out.

Updated Feature: Winners & Losers

On the Depot page you can access the shares that have gained or lost the most in the current week via the winners & losers tab. The window will now display the absolute gains and losses rather than the percentage points. This will drive attention away from penny stocks that often gain many percentage points (+300%), but mot much in absolute terms (from 0.01$ to 0.04$).

Markttrend Poll: Polls indicate a defeat at the upcoming Midterm elections. So we pose the Question will Obama be reelected in two years?

This week our poll focuses on US politics. As defeat at the midterm elections for the Democrats and especially Obama seems inevitable, we shed light on the next presidential election in 2012.

Link to Obama Poll

yes: 54%

no : 46%

What's new on Markttrend prediction markets this week

We will look into the so called “currency war” this week and our poll focuses on US politics.

New Market: US Dollar/Renminbi Yuan 2011 forecast

In the aftermath of the financial crisis many countries struggle to get back on track. After the debt crisis in the Euro-zone and massive doubts about the recovery in the US, the next big threat to global economy is the fear of a currency war. So we think its time to extend our currency prediction portfolio to the Chinese Yuan Renminbi with a new prediction market.

Closed Market: iPad sales prediction

The Apple iPad has literally been flying of the shelf. Our forecast has been 6 Million and more with more than 99% probability for quite a while now. As our prediction range of “6 Million plus” sold units will be reached soon we will close this prediction market on October 17^th.

Markttrend Umfrage zu Stuttgart 21

Sollte die Politik an dem Projekt Stuttgart 21 wie geplant festhalten?

ja:      31%
nein:  69%

Link zur Umfrage 

What's new on Markttrend prediction markets this week

A new market focuses on Microsoft’s browser and we give you more data about our prediction markets.

New Market: Internet Explorer market share 2011

Once there was one browser to rule them all. Nowadays Microsoft is still the dominant force, but seems unable to stop the downward trend of its Internet Explorer browser. We take a look into the future to see what it holds for the IE.

New Feature: market start & end dates

In every market we will now display the start and (if possible) the end date. In the past we often used the newsletter or the news section of our site to announce the finish date of a prediction market. Due to the short timeframe from the announcement to the actual closing users where often caught by surprise. This is why we have decided to display further information about the start and end below the market question in every market.

Neue Markttrend Umfrage zum Umfragehoch der Grünen

Die Hälfte der Umfrageteilnehmer ist der Meinung, die Grünen profitieren vor allem von der Schwäche der anderen Parteien. Die andere Hälfte der Befragten sieht den aktuellen Trend zumindest teilweise in der Parteipolitik begründet.

Umfrage zum Wahltrend der Grünen

Link zum Prognosemarkt Parteienwahl

New features this week:

We introduce another new market this week and we make it easier for you to get rid of your losses.

New Market: Euro/US-Dollar 2011

An ongoing Expansionary monetary policy in the USA, remaining doubts over the debt of many European countries and maybe a US-Chinese trade war. The list of parameters affecting the future value of the worlds leading currencies gets longer by the minute. Time to shine light into the darkness.

New Feature: increased joker

Since we introduced our joker system back in 2008 many users used the daily joker to reduce losses and alter their investment decisions. The value of this joker is now increased from 10 to 30 points. Furthermore the small joker can now reduce your losses by 70 instead of 50 points.