Markttrend.com - prediction markets: Bundestagswahl 2009

Montag, 28. September 2009

Bundestagswahl 2009 - Prognosemarkt Ergebnis

Irgendwie ist im Blog die letzte Prognose vom 26.09 verloren gegangen. Aber auf markttrend.com und in Twitter haben wir sie ja glücklicherweise veröffentlicht. Insgesamt ist es ganz gut gelaufen, stehen im Vergleich mit den Wahlforschern ganz gut dar. Sobald das amtliche Endergebnis feststeht posten wir mal eine Übersicht mit den Abweichungen.

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About us

The platform Markttrend.com is an internet-based prediction market. It is based on the idea that the aggregated collective wisdom is more accurate in predicting future events and trends than the predictions of a small number of experts. This will enable the users to better forecast the outcome of elections, the adoption of new technologies and other trends in politics or society. The used mechanism is similar to a stock market. The users will have the opportunity to buy and sell stocks for different events and technologies. The demand raises or reduces the stock price. To make this platform more compelling and easy to use we chose to implement some game-like features. We hope that this will make your trading experience more enjoyable.

Markttrend.com was started by us - two former students of Darmstadt University of Applied Sciences - in the Summer of 2006. Since Summer 2007 we have worked on implementing the platform. The closed alpha version was started in June 2008. Since September 18th. 2009 the platform's beta version is open. From march 2009 until February 2009 Markttrend.com, as a university startup, received the„Exist-Gründerstipendium“ from the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology and the EU.

Despite promising piloting projects we have currently chosen not to foster the commercial use of Markt-trend.com for company usage. Nevertheless our publicly free and open demo website will stay online and further advance. This is due to the fact, that nearly 2.000.000 virtual stocks have been traded so far in over 100 open and private prediction markets. Furthermore the astonishing results of past predictions and the potential for future development encouraged us to keep Markttrend.com alive.